To begin my exploration of the Detroit Lions’ next opponent, I like to look at their most recent game. For the Carolina Panthers, that means revisiting their 21-18 loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 3. I took notes during the game, and here are my five biggest takeaways on what it may mean for the Lions vs. Panthers, along with some data to back up those observations. The Panthers defense can get to the passer… but they have to be aggressive. Against the Browns, the Panthers posted a 38.5% pressure rate, but that dropped significantly when they were just running. four. Here are their pressure rates in Week 3 with and without blitz: Blitzing: 55.6% pressure rate (4th highest), 2.76 seconds to press (29th) Non-blitz: 33.3% pressure rate (10th), 2.93 seconds to pressure (22nd) When the Panthers don’t send additional blitzers, they generate their pressure using the speed of their edge rushers. Princely Umanmielen ranks second on the team in pressure, behind only Jaelen Phillips, and his speed and curvature were on display against Cleveland. But the Lions dealt with a pair of pass rushers last week against the Jets and held up very well. That said, they have some interior players with some pass-rushing skills, including Derrick Brown (7.0 sacks last year). That could be the biggest threat against Detroit’s young interior. Bryce Young’s arm talent is a problem. Man, Bryce Young is fun to watch when you just look at the arm talent. You can make any throw. And while deep shots get the most national attention, I’m impressed with the shots he can make on the perimeter in tight windows. Just look at his passing chart against the Browns and how he used every inch of the boundary: It takes a lot of arm talent to get that ball up the sideline, and he’s not afraid to do it. He’s also not afraid to air it out deeply. He currently has the longest expected air yards per pass attempt in the league (10.2) and leads the league in passes of 20+ air yards (17). Accuracy goes up and down a bit, but there’s more good than bad there. And while we’re on the topic of Young, his mobility is obviously something defenses need to be aware of. He can extend plays with his legs and his pocket presence is clearly improving. However, interestingly, it is much less prone to running and climbing. Against the Browns, he passed up several easy yardage opportunities to try to make the big play. During the season, he has attempted just three carries for 16 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers’ standard running game struggled, but came to life late. Throughout the season, the Panthers’ running game has been fairly ineffective. They rank 21st in DVOA, 23rd in EPA, and 23rd in success rate. However, they have the ability to wear teams down as the game progresses. Against the Browns, Carolina had just 22 yards on 11 carries through three quarters. But in the fourth quarter, they ran the ball down Cleveland’s throat, rushing for 76 yards on just 12 carries (6.3 YPC). With a pair of hard-hitting backs in Chuba Hubbard (6-foot-1, 210) and AJ Dillon (6-foot, 247), they can wear you down, but they’re not explosive. The Panthers’ longest run of the season is 24 yards by…Kenny Pickett. Running backs don’t have a run of more than 16 yards. Detroit may need to defend all four downs. Panthers head coach Dave Canales isn’t afraid to get a little aggressive on fourth down. Twice in the first half against the Browns, Carolina opted to attack near midfield. Here were the two opportunities: 8:38 left in the second quarter: 0-0 tie, fourth-and-3 from the Browns 43-yard line 3:40 left in the second quarter: 3-0 Browns, fourth-and-1 from the Panthers 40-yard line The Panthers missed both attempts, and it immediately led to two Browns scoring drives and a 10-0 deficit. If Detroit can hold its own on fourth down (the Lions have currently stopped zero of three fourth down attempts), it could be a game-changer. On the year, the Panthers are just 1-for-6 on fourth down. Last year, they attempted the second-most fourth downs in the NFL (40), converting on 27 of them (67.5% conversion rate, fourth-best). The Panthers’ run defense may be better than advertised. If you look at the season-long stats for Carolina’s run defense, they look horrible. They have allowed an NFL-high 5.7 yards per carry, 193.3 rushing yards per game and rank 23rd in rush defense DVOA. However, I think three things are happening: the data is changing because of a terrible Week 1 performance against the Bears, they are being disproportionately hurt by mobile quarterbacks, and they have also made clear progress. Against Chicago, the Panthers allowed 291 rushing yards per game. yards and 7.5 yards per carry. It was a truly terrible performance, led by D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, who combined for 224 yards and four touchdowns on 28 carries (8.0 YPC). The following week wasn’t great, but it was a notable improvement: it allowed Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson to combine for 123 yards on 27 carries (4.6 YPC). Against the Browns, the Panthers allowed 132 rushing yards on 4.4 yards per carry, but Quinshon Judkins managed just 70 yards on 18 carries (3.9 YPC). In total, of the 580 rushing yards the Panthers have allowed, 146 (over 25%) have come from quarterbacks. That won’t be a problem this week. In particular, when it came time to need their defense to stop the run, they did. The Browns had a chance to close out the game late with just one first down to clinch it. Despite facing a second-and-2, the Panthers were able to make three straight stops on runs to give the offense one more chance. That’s reflected in his overall run success rate (35.6%), which is actually ninth-best in the NFL. Now, the Browns’ running game (31st in DVOA) is much worse than the Bears (ninth) and Falcons (sixth), and the Lions have one of the best in the NFL (second). But I still think the early numbers are skewing a run defense that can hold up.
