The Surge is your weekly political sanity check: what matters, what could, and what is just political theater. Sign up here to receive it in your inbox. Welcome to this weekend’s edition of Surge, Slate’s political newsletter. Oh, do you think it’s “bad” or “completely and obviously illegal” that Donald Trump used taxpayer dollars to air a campaign ad celebrating while the lyrics “love me” play repeatedly in the background? Looks like you have Trump derangement syndrome, cowboy. We’re just over a month away from the stupid midterm elections and the Republicans are in disarray. They were specifically promised that the war with Iran would have no concessions! Susan Collins isn’t worried about some major news that broke this week, but maybe she should be. Also, why do some Democrats continue to describe a Republican House member from New York as unbeatable? I may have that attitude. But first: if you have some diesel at home, you could make quite a bit of money on Facebook Marketplace. The week Republicans in red states realized they were going to have to hurry. Everyone has known for some time that this would be a favorable election cycle for Democrats. But this seemed to be the week when this passive knowledge turned into full-blown panic for Republicans…in red states. The Iran war raised energy prices from the start. But it is the recent increase in the price of diesel fuel, at the end of the campaign season, that has sent Republicans into a panic attack never seen before. An increase in the price of diesel is not good for anyone who enjoys things like, for example, eating or buying products. But it’s especially bad for big farming states, where margins were already squeezed because of tariffs and fertilizer prices. In fact, one of the truly unusual features of the Trump administration has been how the president has worked so specifically to make life difficult for people in places like, say, Iowa and Kansas. Well, Iowa and Kansas have a lot of races this year, and the candidates sound abruptly different. Rep. Ashley Hinson, a Senate candidate in Iowa against Democrat Josh Turek, posted this week that “the war must come to a successful and immediate end,” while Iowa Republican Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks went a step further and actually voted to end the war last week. They are all in competitive races, and a poll this week showed Hinson trailing Turek by 8 points. This was a bit atypical, but the race shouldn’t be especially competitive to begin with. Meanwhile, in Kansas, Senator Roger Marshall, who is running against Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton in an increasingly close race, broke with the president by rebuking the behavior of Immigration and Customs Enforcement in the state. Marshall has continued to vote for war with Iran and Hamilton is criticizing him for it. How deep will this Red State incursion go? National Republicans have already all but abandoned Senate races in purple states like Georgia and North Carolina, as more and more money will have to go toward defensive measures in Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and Kansas. Nebraska? Maybe South Carolina and Mississippi? As National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott told GOP senators this week, senators from deep red states should run as if they are behind so that all resources can go to the “record number of contested races” on the map. Democrats shouldn’t get too excited about the prospect of winning, say, eight Senate seats. Republicans still have the monetary advantage, and their recent spending spree should tighten things up a bit. Trump will use some trick on diesel prices, like an export ban, which will be a terrible policy but could offer relief during a hot second. And many undecided voters, although furious with Republicans, still consider Democrats to be helpless monsters. But this week? Take on the GOP panic. Marinate in it. It’s rich. And all due to political decisions (wars, tariffs) that were not necessary to make. Will that story about Susan Collins and the scam defense contractor matter? Not every Senate election is a vision of pure joy for Democrats. They still have to watch their backs in elections where they nominated more left-wing candidates (Michigan, Minnesota, Maine) or where people might be confusing the Republican candidate with his more popular brother (New Hampshire). In Maine, for example, the Collins machine is still advancing in a close race with Troy Jackson, even leading him in a New York Times poll published this week. (Others showed Jackson ahead.) However, on Tuesday, ProPublica published a much-discussed investigation into Collins’ team’s relationship with Martin Kao, the former CEO of a Hawaiian defense contractor. Kao is now in federal prison after his business plan was revealed: buying politicians with campaign donations in exchange for defense contracts that never went anywhere. The story reveals that Collins helped secure the company’s funds, while Kao used shell companies to make large donations to Collins’ super PAC. The FBI was allegedly deeply investigating the situation until Trump took office, at which point FBI agents were fired or reassigned to assist Homeland Security in its widespread harassment of immigrants. Collins’ team described all of this as a success, saying that any notion of a pay-for-play scheme was “categorically false.” His strongest argument in response is that much of it is based on interviews Kao did with the FBI once he was already in jail and looking to save himself, although ProPublica responded that it had independently verified many of his claims. (There are also some not-so-great emails from members of Collins’ orbit in there.) But even if there is no camera footage of Kao giving Collins burlap sacks full of cash, there is certainly a story that she was tricked into handing over federal dollars to a scammer. A quote that didn’t appear in our article on Collins earlier this year, but came back to me this week, was from former Senator Roy Blunt: “I can’t think of an assignment that Susan has ever asked for that has turned out to be a problem for her politically.” That may no longer be the case. Is Mike Lawler really a brilliant political force of such magnitude that he cannot be defeated? Last week, outgoing moderate Maine Democrat Jared Golden, who is really winging it as he leaves office, endorsed New York Republican Rep. Mike Lawler for re-election, citing Lawler’s ability to work with the other side to pass legislation. What caught our attention about this was the reaction of a House Democrat, who told the Washington Sun that Golden’s endorsement didn’t bother them, since “I don’t think Lawler is beatable.” And this caught our attention because we read the same line from a “senior House Democrat” in an Axios story last month, almost word for word. Well, these House Democrats (or this House Democrat who really likes to express the same line to various journalists) are suffering from serious trust issues because: what? Sure, Lawler is plenty talented at maintaining his individual brand, whether it’s creating additional tax breaks for his constituents in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year or calling out bigots within his party. And, of course, Lawler was one of only three House Republicans to win districts in 2024 led by Kamala Harris. All of that is a testament to his skill, but it’s also a sign that he would be directly beneath a blue wave if he crashed. As old Bert Camus would say: One must imagine Lawler beatable. Republicans have spent a lot of money defending Lawler’s seat, and there have been some questions about why Democrats haven’t continued to support his opponent, Cait Conley. (Conley is possibly the purest distillation of DCCC recruiting: West Point. Military. Harvard. MIT. National Security Council.) But part of the reason they haven’t kept pace is because Democrats…don’t have as much money. For an additional section of Jim’s lightning political thoughts, sign up to receive Surge in your inbox. Copy link Share gift story You have the gift available this month. This gift link is valid through . There was an error with your gift link. Please try again. Copy link Link copied! Only Slate Plus members can gift Slate stories. Become a member to share 10 free articles per month. Become a Plus Member
