Nearly half a million people around the world could lose their lives in February due to extreme heat caused by El Niño, according to a sobering new report. El Niño, a natural weather pattern that normally increases global temperatures, has now entered a large territory and is on track to reach unprecedented strength. Combined with the global warming the planet is already experiencing due to fossil fuel pollution, the consequences of the heat could be devastating, according to analysis by the Climate Impact Lab, a team of scientists, economists and data engineers based at the University of Chicago, and published Wednesday. FILE – In this long exposure photo, the Bench Fire burns over the Pelton Reservoir in Jefferson County, Oregon, July 25, 2026. AP Photo/Noah Berger, File Heat is the deadliest form of extreme weather, although heat deaths are not well tracked, even in wealthy nations. The report estimates that El Niño’s heat could claim 451,000 lives between June 2026, when it hit, and February 2027. Those deaths would be in addition to the usual number of heat-related deaths. Researchers believe this number is likely to increase: El Niño is expected to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring, meaning its heat impacts will persist through the summer months. Deaths from extreme heat would also be added to those expected from other extreme weather fueled by El Niño. including fires, floods and droughts, according to the report. The report has not yet been peer-reviewed, but uses a peer-reviewed methodology to reach its conclusions. “We have long been able to predict the impacts of temperatures on crops, and now we can predict their impact on the worst outcome: death,” said report author Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Laboratory and professor of economics at the University of Chicago. of parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people who go to work, care for their families and live their lives,” he added. Scientists project that El Niño will raise global land temperatures 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.1 Fahrenheit) above normal in the coming months. This unusual heat is exactly what climate change is expected to bring in 20 years, and will cause 44% more days of extreme heat than would be expected in a normal year, according to the study. The current El Niño is a “postcard from our future” arriving before the world has had time to adapt, the authors write. The regions expected to be most affected are overwhelmingly in the Global South. The report identifies Nigeria as the country where the highest number of deaths caused by El Niño’s heat is expected, with an estimated 31,400 lives lost. Other countries at high risk include Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil are also among the 20 most affected countries. about 3,500 projected deaths. The report combined peer-reviewed methods on the relationship between temperature and mortality in more than 24,000 regions around the world and seasonal temperature forecasts were compared to the same months of an average year between 1996 and 2025. Raquel Nunes, associate professor of health and environment at the University of Warwick in England, who was not involved in the report, said that “the estimate of 451,000 deaths is plausible as a modeling exercise, but should not be seen as a definitive prediction. Its value lies in highlighting the potentially serious consequences of extreme heat caused by El Niño and the urgent need for “The study is currently awaiting peer review, but the scientists said they published the shorter report first due to the rapid strengthening of El Niño. “Given that there is still time for policymakers and others to take action to prevent these deaths, we felt our findings could not wait for the peer review process to take place. “Certainly, that would be too late to act on this El Niño cycle,” said a spokesperson for the Climate Impact Lab. Measures countries can take include early heat warnings, health action plans, ensuring cooling and hydration centers are available, and expanding health care coverage, the report says. “Scaling up emergency response and better targeting our efforts can save many lives this year,” said report co-author Tamma Carleton, head of research at the Climate Impact Lab and assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley. “But 20 years from now, once current extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don’t want to be in a constant state of emergency.” The-CNN-Wire ™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company.
