US President Donald Trump on Sunday called on Ukraine to stop attacking Russian diesel refineries, blaming the attacks for creating a diesel shortage that he said was “harming the world.” Russia and Ukraine remain locked in an escalating missile war, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and gas facilities reduce Moscow’s oil production, even though Russia is one of the world’s largest oil producers. After the United States and Israel attacked Iran in February, oil and fuel prices soared well above $100 a barrel, before falling during the ceasefire. But as fighting between the United States and Iran has resumed and escalated in recent weeks, oil prices have risen steadily, reaching nearly $108 a barrel on Sunday. Additionally, the US midterm elections are approaching in November, increasing political pressure as rising fuel costs have become a liability for Trump’s Republicans – diesel prices are now at a record high in the US. So are the Ukrainian attacks really driving the global diesel shortage? Or is Trump’s own war in the Middle East to blame? Here’s what we know: What did Trump say? Trump raised the issue at the Amgen Irish Open, held at his own golf course in Doonbeg, Ireland, and told reporters that he had spoken to Zelenskyy about it. “Mr. Zelenskyy has to do one thing: He has to stop phasing out diesel fuel in Russia,” Trump said. “There are many other targets,” arguing that the global diesel shortage is due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine, however, has long argued that it considers Russian energy infrastructure a legitimate military target, as the Russian oil and gas industry directly drives Moscow’s finances and therefore its war against its western neighbor. exports.Russia’s fuel oil exports fell to 591,000 barrels per day in August, below the average of 860,000 bpd in 2025, according to Kpler data dating back to 2017. Hours before Trump’s comments on Sunday, Ukraine’s military said it had attacked the TANECO refinery in the Russian republic of Tatarstan. Police said two civilians were killed. Russia has retaliated by attacking gas stations, mostly near the front line, and the attacks have accelerated since April; at least 246 have been reached so far. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, told Al Jazeera that while the Ukraine attacks are severely impacting Russia’s key export industry, the real impact for now is on Russian civilians. At the end of last month, dozens of gas stations in St. Petersburg ran out of supplies. Long queues of customers have been seen at gas stations in various parts of Russia. “At the moment, the impact is mainly on the civilian population, a measure designed to increase internal pressure on the Russian president,” Beauchamp told Al Jazeera, speaking of Ukraine’s motive for attacking Russia’s energy facilities. How much diesel does Russia supply to the world? to the refineries caused by the Ukrainian attacks. Combined diesel exports from Russia and the Gulf in August were 1.6 million barrels per day less than in February, when they accounted for nearly 45 percent of global trade, according to the International Energy Agency. To what extent have diesel prices increased in the United States? American diesel prices are nearly 65 percent higher since the United States and Israel attacked Iran in February, with a national average of about $6.20 per gallon (3.78 liters) on Sunday, according to American Automobile. Association. Regular gasoline costs $4.31 a gallon, up about 45 percent over the same period. Since ships, trains and trucks run on diesel, price increases have contributed to the rising cost of everyday goods. With the U.S. economy becoming a hot topic ahead of the midterm elections, Trump’s approval rating on economic management has fallen to just 17 percent, according to a recent Financial Times poll. Why are diesel prices skyrocketing? Beauchamp says the Ukrainian attacks are just a “small ingredient” in the bigger picture. The United States has not imported Russian diesel since 2022, when Moscow invaded Ukraine, he explained. Oil prices were 40 percent lower before the war with Iran began, pointing instead to the U.S. military. The action in the Middle East is the main reason for the rise in diesel prices, which Beauchamp said “threatens to push the global economy into recession.” The IEA draws a similar conclusion: the damage to Russian refineries and lower exports aggravates the losses already caused by the war in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline, a key alternative export route, was knocked out of service on Thursday after a drone attack allegedly launched from Iraq. Beyond crude oil prices, refineries in both the Middle East and Russia that convert oil into usable fuel have suffered damage due to the war. “A cessation of the Ukrainian attacks could cause the price to drop slightly and in the short term,” Beauchamp told Al Jazeera. “But if the main factor is not resolved, that measure would be quickly reversed.” Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, agreed that while the attacks on Russia’s diesel supplies are significant, the US war against Iran is the biggest cause of damage to global energy supplies. “The Iran war remains the largest systemic shock to global diesel availability.” Krieg told Al Jazeera. “Ukraine’s refinery campaign represents an extremely significant additional contraction, but adds to a much larger disruption centered in the Gulf.” “That combination is the reason why diesel has become so sensitive; the two crises are not competing explanations. They are cumulative.”
