The US-led international military coalition will conclude its mission in Iraq at the end of this month, the country’s armed forces have confirmed to state media. Lt. Gen. Abdul Amir al-Shammari, director of the Office of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, in a statement to the Iraqi News Agency on Monday, stated that September 30 is the date for the end of the international coalition forces’ mission in Iraq and the transition to a new chapter of relations and cooperation. of 4 itemsend of list Previously, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s security advisor, Qasim al-Araji, had confirmed that the US-led international military coalition would conclude its mission in the country this month. Under a 2024 agreement between Baghdad and Washington, the withdrawal includes the withdrawal of US air defense systems stationed in Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq. These platforms have been essential for the interception of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones. targeting the region amid the US-Israel war against Iran. US forces led the invasion of Iraq in 2003, which resulted in a bloody civil war in the country, with approximately 200,000 civilians killed in war-related violence. After withdrawing from Iraq in 2011, US forces returned in 2015, as part of an international coalition fighting the ISIL (ISIS) group. “September 30 will be the fixed and final date to end the Global Coalition’s military mission to defeat ISIS in Iraq and complete the departure of its forces,” the prime minister’s office said. “October 1 will mark a new day in the trajectory of the Iraqi State, as Iraq will be free of any foreign control, military presence… [The move] It represents an essential prerequisite for leading Iraq to a new phase of development and prosperity.” Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who is also commander-in-chief of the Iraqi armed forces, chairs an emergency meeting of the Ministerial Council for National Security in Baghdad, July 29, 2026. [Handout/Media Office of Iraq’s Prime Minister via Reuters]Internal political obstacles Iyad al-Anbar, a political science professor at Baghdad University, told Al Jazeera that the military withdrawal is largely a formality. “I think this issue is almost agreed upon. Fundamentally, the concentration of US forces in Iraq is no longer in military barracks or Iraqi military bases, but has been concentrated in the Harir base in Erbil,” al-Anbar told Al Jazeera. “Ultimately, this issue will be primarily symbolic, considering that the Americans have ended their military presence in many headquarters where they used to be; including at Camp Victory near Baghdad airport and others, the support base, and even in the Green Zone near the US embassy.” terrorism charges. “The issue is related to credibility and trust. Mr. al-Zaidi was insistent and raised the limit of escalation regarding not backing down on the September 30 deadline to restrict weapons to the state,” al-Anbar said. “Now we have started talking about ‘regulating’ weapons, and what is the mechanism of this regulation? No one talks about the details of this issue. We notice an escalation in the rhetoric of political parties such as Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Harakat al-Nujaba and Kataib Hezbollah.” The question of how the government will handle the task of managing security alone amid such challenges remains a prominent issue, particularly as key positions in the defense and interior ministries remain vacant. “These ministries represent central points in the plan to begin restricting weapons to the state,” al-Anbar added. Popular Mobilization Forces fighters carry flags as they demonstrate to mark the annual Quds Day (Jerusalem Day) Commemorations in Baghdad on March 28, 2025. [Murtaja Lateef/AFP]US Strategic Pivot The withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq reflects a broader strategic shift by the United States under President Donald Trump, rather than a complete withdrawal from the country. Former US diplomat Marlin Hardinger said Washington would remain involved in security issues in Iraq despite the formal withdrawal. “I think we can say that this medium-term engagement is over, and I think there will be residual efforts related to counterterrorism and intelligence, especially around the US embassy and consulate,” Hardinger told Al Jazeera. The Trump administration will perhaps focus more on the economic aspect and the development dimension so that the economic returns and benefits in the short and medium term are better for Iraqis, and then the position of the Iraqi prime minister will be stronger.” The withdrawal will appeal to some Trump supporters, particularly among those in the Republican Party’s America First contingent. But it could also alarm some of Washington’s allies in the region, amid the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran. “Factions that support Israel and want direct involvement of the United States in the Middle East may be upset by this withdrawal; Likewise, this could pose a danger to the Gulf states if terrorist organizations emerge,” Hardinger said. “The real problem is that the region has become less stable and more turbulent than when negotiations and discussions related to the withdrawal of US forces began.” I work at the site of a strike north of the city of Miqdadiyah in Dayala province on July 29, 2026. [AFP]Regional security gaps The withdrawal of US Patriot missile batteries could leave northern Iraq very vulnerable to external threats, said Hassan al-Barari, a professor of international relations at the University of Jordan. “It is unlikely that the Iraqi state will currently be able to defend its skies against Iranian missiles and drones if Iran targets Erbil, for example. [and] This raises a question at this stage about how to fill this security gap,” he told Al Jazeera. “In the event that Iran continues to send drones and missiles, who will intercept them if the Patriot systems and US interceptor missiles are withdrawn? “Who can stop this Iranian threat if there is no direct understanding with the government in Tehran?” al-Barari said. Ultimately, the success of the transition depends entirely on Baghdad’s ability to manage internal security issues. “The Baghdad government’s ability to maintain or fully restore Iraq’s sovereignty is not only linked to the withdrawal of US forces, but also to al-Zaidi’s ability to restrict weapons to the state,” al-Barari said. “In my opinion, things are heading into the unknown. If al-Zaidi does not succeed in this, Iraq may fall completely under absolute Iranian influence…creating a dangerous security vacuum, which is the scenario that Washington warns about and tries to avoid.”
