Space microbes have driven the plots of sci-fi mainstays like “Project Hail Mary” and “The Andromeda Strain.” But with more space missions launching each year, finding extraterrestrial life in microbial form is increasingly plausible. What will be the response here on Earth if – or when – scientists discover extraterrestrial microbes? Will the international political and security communities be prepared for the consequences? When you hear about extraterrestrial life, your mind may think of intelligent life, like that present in much of Hollywood science fiction. But even confirmation that microbial life originated somewhere other than Earth (which is much more likely) would be a paradigm-shifting event. Thinking early about what these consequences might look like can help nations and the international community prepare. Our team is interested in this question. We are staffed by a tenured professor of international affairs, who earned a Ph.D. in chemistry, and whose expertise is in how science and emerging technologies could affect global conflict and cooperation, as well as an emerging scholar in space policy and security and an expert in the social and political implications of cutting-edge technologies, such as artificial intelligence, space, quantum and energy sources. Multiple Mars landers have identified large amounts of liquid and frozen water, essential for life, on the red planet. Samples recovered by the Japanese Hayabusa2 spacecraft from a near-Earth asteroid revealed the presence of uracil, part of RNA, which is a building block of life. Unmanned space probes such as NASA’s Europa Clipper and the European Space Agency’s Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer are on their way to conducting detailed surveys of the planet’s moons and investigating whether they have conditions suitable for life. Scientists search for life in space using what they know about life on Earth. But what will happen if they find something? Coupled with data from the James Webb Space Telescope and future missions aimed at Saturn’s icy moon Enceladus, the likelihood of discovering extraterrestrial microbial life has increased substantially. A governance challenge The discovery of microbial life would expose important gaps in international space-related governance. While there are some international agreements, including the Outer Space Treaty, that provide guidelines on space law, they are not prepared to address the complexities posed by extraterrestrial biology. The Outer Space Treaty, established in 1967, dictates that countries must use outer space peacefully. It also states that no nation can claim ownership or exercise sovereignty over parts of outer space or celestial bodies such as the Moon. The United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space is one of the few existing avenues for space governance. US Mission to International Organizations in Vienna, CC BY-NC-ND However, it doesn’t have much to say about who can possess extraterrestrial organisms or what to do about biosafety risks. It has no instructions on who can use, preserve or destroy living things, such as bacteria or fungi, that may be discovered in space. Historical Analogies and Future Paths While people have yet to discover extraterrestrial life of any kind, there are some important geopolitical events that can help researchers understand what the consequences might be. While the space race of the 1950s and 1960s led to exploration of the Moon, it was fueled by a Cold War power struggle between two nations on Earth. Instead of coming together to explore space, both countries experienced a renewed sense of nationalism. They used the new discoveries derived from the space race to invest in their military capabilities. On the other hand, researchers can observe how states respond to asteroid threats. Since an asteroid could pose a truly existential threat from space, preventing the worst-case scenario requires cooperation and foresight. Astronomers have built a collaborative global network to monitor and sound the alarm about any potential threats. This network has shown that nations can put aside terrestrial rivalries to work together if they perceive something from space as a truly existential threat. The International Space Station is another example that shows how nations that compete with each other as great powers on Earth work together to cooperate in space. Countries have collaborated to solve problems on the International Space Station that have specific, short-term and clearly identified objectives. The ISS is an example of countries cooperating in space research. NASA/Roscosmos These examples show a variety of possible reactions to the discovery of space microbes. The situation could renew space races between competing countries and lead to militarization, or it could create unprecedented cooperation. Potential outcomes We have identified three main potential outcomes for the discovery of extraterrestrial microbial life. First, there is a cooperative outcome, reminiscent of the asteroid threat network or the International Space Station. Here, nations collaborate to regulate research, share data, protect the planet, or promote specific interests they share. This pathway is neither inherently benign nor malignant. It could involve expanding the functions of international organizations or creating new legal instruments. Secondly, there is a competitive outcome, characterized by strategic rivalry between countries. As in the space race, nations could strive to be technologically superior. They could try to monopolize access to extraterrestrial microbes or take advantage of biological discoveries about microbes for their own economic or military advantage. Scientific advances derived from extraterrestrial organisms could lead to innovations in medicine, agriculture, energy and more. However, the organisms could also be used as weapons, intentionally or otherwise, which would amplify biosecurity risks. In this sense, the discovery of microbial life could create a new form of technological competition, merging space exploration with biological research and development. The increasing role of private companies, such as SpaceX, complicates this dynamic. These companies receive government contracts, blurring the line between civil and strategic business activities. For example, about 60% of all satellites currently orbiting Earth belong to SpaceX’s Starlink subsidiary. The company can (and has) chosen to block access selectively, consistent with its political priorities. When commercial interests and national priorities diverge, it can be uncertain who has access and who is denied access. A SpaceX rocket launches a payload of Starlink satellites into orbit around Earth. AP Photo/John Raoux Biopiracy research may come into play. Biopiracy is a term that applies to two main issues: the patenting of indigenous knowledge or the patenting of natural resources, such as microbes, for profit. The Budapest Treaty prohibits claiming ownership of a naturally occurring microbe on Earth, but there is no equivalent for microbes in space. Third is an isolationist outcome, in which states could break their participation in international cooperation due to biosecurity concerns or political distrust. The possibility of unknown biological risks, however minimal, could trigger preemptive restrictions on data sharing, limiting international collaboration. Countries could lose or gain allies as they debate whether the microbe could cause harm to humans or the environment, or become a biological weapon. Emerging technologies will also shape these outcomes. Artificial intelligence and machine learning are already an integral part of scientific research. Scientists use them to process astronomical data and identify possible biosignatures. Nanotechnology and advances in biological sciences and engineering could allow researchers to study, modify or exploit extraterrestrial microbes, if given access to them. Countries will have to prepare not only for the scientific implications of the discovery but also for its social and political repercussions. The politicization of scientific discoveries from microbes could complicate or change how countries respond nationally and internationally. Misinformation about microbes could shape policy and public response. Preparing for the unprecedented The discovery of extraterrestrial microbial life would not simply mark a scientific milestone. It would be a geopolitical event. Instead of trying to predict a singular outcome, authorities could adopt scenario-based planning approaches in the meantime to anticipate and prepare for a variety of possibilities. In these approaches, participants explore multiple futures through structured activities similar to professional or military war games or road games, in which they explore multiple outcomes systematically to test strategies, plan, and analyze potential outcomes under realistic uncertainty. In our opinion, the question is not whether humanity will discover life beyond Earth, but whether it is prepared for the consequences when it does.
