The manufacturer has touted it as the ballistic missile of the future: lethal, long-range and accurate. Lockheed Martin’s precision strike missile has caused the US military to invest billions to upgrade its arsenal. But a close look at what is believed to be its first combat use — the first day of the war with Iran — highlights the potential danger of deploying this weapon near population centers because it appears to spray pellets over a wide area, according to a review by conflict monitor Airwars and interviews with weapons experts and former defense officials. Three missiles that hit the southern city of Lamerd on February 28 killed civilians. up to 50 meters (164 feet) from where they detonated and caused damage more than three times that distance, Airwars found. The missiles detonated over a sports complex and two residential neighborhoods, Airwars found. The explosions killed at least 21 civilians, including seven children, according to Iranian officials. Airwars is the first to map the damage radius of attacks on Lamerd and estimate the lethal range of the weapon used. The PrSM is designed to explode in midair and propel tens of thousands of dense metal pellets at high speed in all directions. Photos, videos and satellite images of the aftermath of the Lamerd attacks analyzed by Airwars and verified by The Associated Press show that buildings, streets and vehicles were heavily marked by an explosion pattern that experts say is consistent with the capabilities of the PrSM. The US military has confirmed firing PrSM at Iran, but has denied attacking Lamerd. It is not clear who or what the intended target at Lamerd was. An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps compound is located nearby, but satellite images showed no damage there. Six weapons experts, including two former military officers, told the AP they believe the PrSM hit Lamerd, and said it was unlikely that Israeli or Iranian weapons were used. All mentioned militaries should avoid firing the PrSM at targets close to civilian areas. “You would be hard-pressed to find a reason to use PrSM in a densely populated area,” said Michael Meier, a former U.S. military adviser on the laws of war. How Airwars reached its conclusions Airwars, a London-based nonprofit, was founded more than a decade ago to track reports of civilian deaths from U.S. airstrikes in Syria and Iraq, and has also monitored conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere. It relies on publicly available material such as photographs, videos, satellite images, social media and news reports, and uses geolocation software and other tools to help it analyze this evidence. Subscribe to Morning Wire: Our flagship newsletter breaks down the day’s biggest headlines. Airwars used these methods to investigate the attacks on Lamerd. He mapped the approximate locations of missile detonations, where civilian deaths were reported, and where damage was visible and consistent with explosion patterns. He then measured the distances between the positions to estimate the radius of the explosion. AP verified Airwars’ blast radius estimate by measuring the distance between the spot where civilians were killed, according to Iranian media reports, and the spot where the missiles detonated in mid-air, according to security cameras and other videos. The AP also examined satellite images, photographs and videos of the damage caused at the attack sites. Lockheed Martin, which did not respond to a request for comment, has not said how broad the missile’s impact is. He has posted an animated video modeling a PrSM explosion. The United States promoted the use of PrSM in Iran, but denied attacking Lamerd. In a post sent to Three days later, he touted that PrSMs – in a “historic first” – had been used in Iran, though not where. Several weeks later, as reports of the attacks in Lamerd attracted media attention, a Central Command spokesperson said in a statement that US forces did not launch PrSM or any weapons against Lamerd on February 28, and that they were not targeting civilians. The spokesman said images of one of the strikes suggested it was an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile. Weapons experts said a missile seen on Lamerd’s security camera video does not match the Iranian model, which has a rounded motor. The Israeli military told the AP it did not attack anywhere in Iran as far south as Lamerd on the first day of the war, and experts said the Israeli military is not known to have missiles that detonate in mid-air. When asked about the Airwars and AP findings, US Central Command reiterated its denial of responsibility, saying it was based on an earlier review of what happened there. Its commander, Adm. Brad Cooper, also told Congress in May that they were only investigating one case of U.S. fire that killed civilians: an attack on an Iranian school in Minab. What the PrSM should do The new missiles are intended to replace the Army Tactical Missile System used for decades, according to the US military. While the ATACMS can travel approximately 300 kilometers (186 miles), the PrSM can hit targets more than 499 kilometers (310 miles) away, Lockheed Martin says. The PrSM differs from its predecessor in another key way. When ATACMS break into steel fragments or small bombs over their target area, an exploding PrSM fires tens of thousands of pellets made of tungsten in all directions, Airwars and weapons experts say. Due to the high density and melting point of tungsten, shot retains its shape after detonation. That makes them extremely lethal, capable of piercing soft armor, according to defense magazines. The missiles at Lamerd caused damage far from where they exploded. Airwars found footage of a school in Lamerd that was damaged by the missile detonated above the Shahid Naimi sports hall about 170 meters (557 feet) away. That explosion killed seven civilians, mostly children, Iranian state media reported. Airwars says it used open source material to confirm the deaths. Among them were three teenagers playing volleyball and a woman smoking a hookah in front of her house. Another explosion in the Tal-e Khandagh neighborhood killed 2-year-old Avina Barzegar, who was playing in her garden. Airwars estimates that the pellet that hit Barzegar traveled 50 meters from the explosion site. He reached that conclusion by geolocating his house, based on a video that showed the front door, and measuring the distance from the house to the place. Neither Airwars nor the AP could find any reports indicating that military or security personnel were killed in the attacks, or that military infrastructure was attacked. The United States, United Kingdom and Australia have committed to purchasing more PrSM. Since the Lamerd attacks, the Pentagon signed a contract worth more than $4 billion with Lockheed Martin to quadruple PrSM production. The United Kingdom said in June it had set aside 130 million pounds ($177 million) to purchase the weapon. Australia purchased the missiles in 2025 and invested billions of dollars in the PrSM program in April. Weapons experts say the PrSM provides valuable new capabilities, but must be used carefully. “Its proper use should be reserved for things like large concentrations of hard- and soft-armored enemy personnel,” said Wes Bryant, a former Pentagon adviser on precision warfare and civilian damage mitigation. Trevor Ball, a former US Army explosives expert, also urged caution. “It will kill people outside their homes who are not protected by walls,” he said. ___ Associated Press writers Konstantin Toropin and Collin Binkley in Washington contributed.
