For the past two months, President Trump has offered a constant plea: pretend he’s on the ballot. Tuesday’s midterm elections will give voters the opportunity to do just that. They are set to hold the first national referendum on a second-term Trump agenda characterized by far-reaching tariffs, an unpopular war with Iran and an aggressive immigration crackdown. Republican officials are bracing for harsh judgment and potentially significant defeats. In general, they expect to lose control of the House. They are also increasingly worried about losing the Senate. Democrats have tried to define their campaigns through anger over high prices driven by tariffs and war, focusing primarily on the idea of making life cost less. Led by Trump, Republicans have struggled to articulate an affirmative counterargument, with the president dismissing concerns about the economy and sending an often scattered message. American politics, of course, is full of surprises. While Republicans have underperformed in both of the Trump-era midterm elections, the president has demonstrated his ability to attract his most loyal supporters. He has also intensified his baseless attacks on the US electoral system, raising fears of federal interference in the results. Democrats need a net gain of just three House seats to gain the majority. The Senate is a heavier push: Democrats must keep all their seats and flip at least four of those held by Republicans. They are competing in states like Texas, which hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1988, and Kansas, which hasn’t done so since 1932. And if Democrats topple at least two Republican-controlled governorships, they will hold a majority of them for the first time since 2010, when a backlash against President Barack Obama fueled a Republican wave that has shaped American politics ever since. Led by President Trump, Republicans have struggled to define their campaigns. Credit… Doug Mills/The New York TimesPolls will close at 6 p.m. Eastern Time. The results that follow will shape the country for at least the next two years, and perhaps much longer. Here are six issues to watch when voting ends: How far can Democrats push into Republican territory? Look at where the competitive racing was in the final days of the campaign. Solidly red Kansas and Ohio have lost Senate races. Democrats are seriously competing in House districts like the one vacated by Rep. Elise Stefanik in upstate New York, where Trump won by 21 percentage points two years ago. Gubernatorial races are close in conservative states such as Florida, Nebraska and Oklahoma, where Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, spent Monday night defending the party’s nominee. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win even a single county in Oklahoma was Al Gore in 2000. Over the weekend, Republicans poured money into the Louisiana Senate race, which until then had not been considered a competitive race. Both parties have also committed backlog money to Senate races in Mississippi and South Carolina, states that have been out of reach for Democrats for a generation. With Democrats expected to win elections in at least some red House districts and threaten to flip Senate seats in deep red states, the question is to what extent they can prevail in the Republican terrain. How angry are voters about Trump’s handling of the economy? because of tariffs and a war ordered by Trump. The president spent the day before the election talking about his changes at the reflecting pool in Washington. In recent weeks, some of his most memorable rally lines have been about the anatomies of Republican Senate candidates. Trump’s approval ratings have sunk to historic lows. Republican candidates who have recast their political identities in his image are struggling to convince voters that they can be independent. In many cases, Republicans have not even attempted to demonstrate that the economy is in good shape. Instead, they have tried to change the subject. In the Michigan Senate race, former Rep. Mike Rogers has sought to bring the Muslim faith and family background of his Democratic opponent, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, to the center of the campaign. In Texas, voters have seen a flurry of Republican ads about how James Talarico, the Democratic Senate candidate, has spoken out in the past about transgender rights. And in Maine, Sen. Susan Collins is selling voters on the idea that her seniority after four terms is best for her state. Rising fuel prices, including diesel, are on voters’ minds. Credit…Hilary Swift for The New York TimesIf Democrats win the House, how big will their majority be? We might know pretty early in the afternoon what kind of night it will be for the House. In Indiana and the eastern half of Kentucky, polls close at 6 pm Eastern time. There are close races in Kentucky’s Sixth Congressional District, which Trump won by 15 points in 2024, and Indiana’s Fifth District, which he won by 17 points. Both are competitive races that will reveal some of the first clues about the rest of the electoral map. They are districts that combine rural and suburban voters and are generally safe for Republicans. There are dozens of similar House districts across the country. Nevada’s Second District covers Reno and the rural northern half of the state. Trump won it by 14 points. It’s not a place where Democrats normally compete. But this year, Democrats have a strong candidate, the Republican incumbent is retiring and the party’s nominee is considered weak, while a potential third-party spoiler is about to siphon off conservative votes with the help of Democrats. Districts like these will determine the size of the cushion House Democrats could have when new members are sworn in in January. What are the consequences of the national fight over redistricting? Starting with Texas last summer, Republican-led states began redrawing their congressional districts. The new maps were based on the idea that the electorate in 2026 would look somewhat like the one that carried Trump to victory in 2024. That doesn’t appear to be the case. Latino voters have turned against Trump, changing politics in south Texas and south Florida, where Republicans tried to secure advantages. Rural voters are furious about the price of diesel fuel. Early voting data suggests that black voters are going to the polls in large numbers. The result is that House districts drawn with the express intention of putting them in Republican hands have competitive races. In Texas, Florida, Tennessee and North Carolina, there are increasingly close races in districts that Trump would have won by double digits if they had existed in 2024. Meanwhile, in California, voters approved a plan aimed at handing five seats to Democrats in the House, and the redistricting does not appear to have put any of the party’s seats at risk. How all of these races unfold may have ramifications beyond the House’s immediate control. Several states are considering redrawing their congressional maps before the 2028 elections. If this year’s new maps backfire, they could temper the aggression of next year’s mapmakers. What happens to all the Republican money? Elon Musk spent at least $474 million to support Republicans in the midterm elections. The next four biggest donors are also Republicans. And Trump had an unmatched war chest. If Republicans defy expectations, it will be at least in part because of a financial advantage built long before the races became close in the final weeks of the campaign. At the same time, Democratic officials involved in House and Senate races have lamented that they do not have the money to compete in as many districts and states as they would like. The Texas gubernatorial race, for example, became a source of frustration for Latino Democrats. For weeks, they have been angry that the party didn’t invest more in Gina Hinojosa, a state representative who polls show is tied or close to Gov. Greg Abbott, the three-term Republican incumbent. In Texas, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, a Democrat, is challenging Gov. Greg Abbott. Credit…Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times; Shelby Tauber for The New York Times Democratic House officials have privately canvassed a number of districts where they believed they had a shot at winning if they had more resources available. Will Democrats be hurt by the dramas of the Senate races? Red-state Senate races in Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Ohio, Texas and South Carolina are competitive in part because Democrats have nominated a generally strong slate of candidates who have mostly avoided major issues on the campaign trail. That’s not the case in your blue state. siblings. Maine Democrats changed their candidate in July after primary winner Graham Platner was forced out of the race following a rape allegation, which he denied. Michigan was rocked this weekend by a late endorsement shift, with Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the Senate primary to Dr. El-Sayed, defecting and endorsing the Republican in the race, Mr. Rogers. The Michigan Senate race between Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, left, and Mike Rogers had drama over the weekend. Credit…Todd Heisler/The New York Times; Victor J. Blue for The New York Times And in light blue Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has led polls in her Senate race despite being behind the state’s biggest fraud scandal and being considered one of the party’s weakest campaigns. There’s also Alaska, where a New York Times report last week about Democratic schemes to help Mary Peltola, the party’s Senate candidate, by recruiting a second Dan Sullivan in the race sparked a wave of Republican candidates. gonna. Polls show Democratic candidates leading or ahead in all four races, but some of these races — especially in Michigan and Maine, where Collins, the Republican incumbent, is a formidable opponent — have required more resources and attention than party leaders would have preferred. Reid J. EpsteinPolitical Reporter After months of primaries, candidate changes, a midterm convention, campaign drama and nearly $12 billion in spending, it’s finally Election Day in the United States. A third of the Senate, the entire House and 36 governorships are on the ballot. Some of these races are competitive, but most are not, either due to political gerrymandering or a broader sorting that has taken place in the country. On this Election Day, let us know which race on your ballot is most important to you and what you most hope to see in the results of these local and national elections.
