Editor Thenews24.net 
On December 14, 2022, Yahya Sinwar, the Palestinian leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, appeared at an event in Gaza City marking Hamas’ 35th anniversary. Following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the former political chief, Hamas appointed Sinwar as the new leader of its political wing. Sinwar, known for his harsh tactics and believed to have orchestrated the October 7 attack, now wields significant power within the organization and represents it internationally.
Shift in Hamas Leadership
Michael Horowitz, a geopolitical analyst at Le Beck International, pointed out that the most extreme faction of Hamas, responsible for the October 7 attack, now controls the organization. Tensions have been high since Haniyeh’s death in Iran on July 31, which Iran and Hamas blame on Israel. Although Israel has not commented, Iran has vowed retaliation.
Impact on Ceasefire Negotiations
Haniyeh’s assassination has led to a more radical Hamas leadership, complicating ceasefire negotiations aimed at ending the conflict and securing the release of Israeli hostages in Gaza. Haniyeh, based in Qatar, was seen as a pragmatic negotiator. In contrast, Sinwar, operating from Gaza, often disrupts communication during talks.
Victor Tricaud, a senior analyst at Control Risks, stated that Sinwar’s appointment signals a hardening of Hamas’ stance, particularly on ceasefire discussions. Without Haniyeh’s pragmatic influence, Sinwar’s uncompromising views will prevail. Nevertheless, Tricaud believes this change will not significantly alter the ground war in Gaza, as Israel remains focused on targeting Sinwar. Consequently, the region is expected to face increased instability for several months.
Sinwar’s Background
Sinwar, 61, was born in a Gaza refugee camp and spent over two decades in Israeli prisons. In 1989, he received a life sentence for orchestrating the killings of Israeli soldiers and Palestinians suspected of collaborating with Israel. After his release in a 2011 prisoner swap, Sinwar used his time in prison to learn Hebrew and study Israeli psychology. Designated a terrorist by the U.S. in 2015, he became Hamas’ leader in 2017.
International Criminal Court Involvement
In May, the International Criminal Court announced that it was seeking arrest warrants for Sinwar and Haniyeh for war crimes and crimes against humanity. The court also sought similar charges against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
Consequences for Gaza’s Future
Sinwar’s rise to the top position in Hamas merges its political and military wings, complicating future plans for Gaza. Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, noted that this move undermines Hamas’ international legitimacy. It also makes negotiations for a better hostage settlement and future governance more complex.
Sinwar, a primary target for Israel, has survived multiple assassination attempts and is believed to be hiding in Gaza’s tunnel network. Ghanem Nuseibeh, chairman of Muslims Against Antisemitism, described Hamas’ decision to appoint Sinwar as a risky gamble. This decision makes negotiations with an elusive and extreme leader even more challenging.